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Updated: 55 min 16 sec ago

A Tough Balance: Brown Trout Can Interfere with Brook Trout Conservation

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 12:00

Cortland, N.Y.— Brown trout introductions could hamper the conservation of declining native brook trout populations, according to a new U.S. Geological Survey study.

Brook and brown trout are valuable sport fish that co-exist in many parts of the world due to stocking introductions. USGS researchers found that, in New York State, direct interactions between the two species, such as competition for food, have minor effects on diminishing brook trout populations compared to human-caused habitat disturbances. However, repeated, disproportionate stocking of brown trout in brook trout habitats could drastically decrease brook trout numbers.

"There is great potential for brown trout stocking to reduce native brook trout populations," said James McKenna, USGS scientist and lead author of the study. "But brown trout aren’t necessarily causing the current brook trout declines, and managers may be able to develop sustainable scenarios to support both fisheries."

The USGS study found that human-induced degradation (from dams and roads, among other causes) of the habitats of both species can affect the populations of either. However, because brook trout do better in forested watersheds, whereas brown trout can thrive in more agricultural environments, degraded watersheds and/or the elimination of forests may affect brook more than brown trout. Improper brown trout management could further threaten vulnerable brook trout populations.

Fisheries managers in New York use stocking to maintain brook trout—a native species—and/or brown trout—a non-native species stocked in New York for over 100 years—in some streams. Brook trout have been declining within its native range in recent decades, and there has been concern that the stocking of brown trout has caused these declines.

The report is published in the North American Journal of Fisheries Management and is available online.

For more information on USGS Great Lakes ecosystem research, please visit the USGS Great Lakes Science Center website.

Interior Announces Funding for New Scientific Studies as Part of President Obama's Climate Action Plan

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 11:45
Research Designed to Fill Knowledge Gaps, Provide Land and Wildlife Managers with Tools to Adapt to Climate Change

WASHINGTON, DC—Secretary of the Interior Sally Jewell announced today that Interior’s eight regional Climate Science Centers are awarding nearly $7 million to universities and other partners for research as part of President Obama’s Climate Action Plan to reduce carbon pollution, move our economy toward clean energy sources and begin to prepare our communities for the impacts of climate change. 

Decade of Fire Island Research Available to Help Understand Future Coastal Changes

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 09:00

A new resource about Fire Island, N.Y. is now at the fingertips of coastal managers, planners and the public that will be useful for understanding and predicting future change on the island.

The United States Geological Survey created the public website that details a decade's worth of research that focuses on changes to the beaches and dunes of the barrier island and understanding what affects their change.

Fire Island was severely impacted by Hurricane Sandy in October 2012. More than a year later, the USGS continues to study the changes left behind in its devastating path and generating critical information to aid the recovery process and help communities become more resilient against future storms. 

"The website is intended to provide our federal, state and local partners and stakeholders with an access point to the large body of science we have produced, including the findings of the research that has been conducted at Fire Island," said Cheryl Hapke, a USGS research geologist who is a principal investigator of the Fire Island Research.

In addition to understanding the impacts of the storm, USGS scientists are integrating analyses of short- and long-term coastal change to better understand what factors affect coastal shorelines and how geologic controls, sea-level rise and human activities contribute to their vulnerability. Results of the research at Fire Island are applicable to other barrier systems.

"Barrier islands are dynamic systems that also provide protection from future storms to the built environment," Hapke said. "A thorough understanding of the long-term and short-term evolution of barrier islands can lead to models that better predict future changes to the coastal system at Fire Island." 

Fire Island is the longest of the barrier islands that lie along the south shore of Long Island, N.Y. The majority of the island is part of Fire Island National Seashore and is a unique and important recreational and ecosystem resource.

As a result of Hurricane Sandy, beaches and dunes on Fire Island lost more than half of their pre-storm volume. Field surveys conducted immediately after Sandy documented low, flat beaches and extensive dune erosion. Assessment of overwash deposits -- the material that was carried to the interior of the island -- indicates that most of the sand lost from the beaches and dunes during Hurricane Sandy was moved offshore or down the coast.

This website is one of several planned products to connect people with USGS research related to Hurricane Sandy recovery, restoration and rebuilding efforts, many of which are funded by Disaster Relief Appropriations Act 2013, also known as Sandy Supplemental. 

Thin Skin Beneath Streams Can Power Large Improvements in Water Quality

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 17:27

Recent U.S. Geological Survey research has found that natural biochemical processes in water moving back and forth between a stream and its underlying sediment were significant in removing nitrate from streams in the Illinois River basin, one of the world’s most intensively farmed regions.

The USGS study in a nitrogen-polluted stream found that the flow of streamwater through a very thin zone of sediment enhances chemical reactions that decrease nitrate delivery to coastal areas where nitrogen fuels formation of hypoxic "dead zones."  

"One of the thorniest issues in the overall quality of our Nation's waters is relatively high levels of nitrates and other nutrients in many of our streams and rivers,” said Lori Caramanian, Department of the Interior Deputy Assistant Secretary for Water and Science. "A better understanding of the natural processes that reduce nutrients in our streams and rivers will help us mange our waterways in a more effective manner." 

Beneath all streams and rivers is a shallow layer of sediment that is permeated by water exchange across the sediment surface. This boundary between the world of earth and water in streams is referred to by scientists as the "hyporheic" zone, from Greek words meaning "under the flow." The hyporheic zone can be thought of as the stream's "skin," since it serves vital functions such as the removal of dissolved and particulate contaminants being transported by the stream.

Previous research has established under laboratory conditions that hyporheic flow should be critical to sparking reactions that improve stream water quality, but field studies have generally been unable to reveal the contribution of hyporheic flow to decreasing the flow of contaminants to sensitive downstream waters.

This field study determined that a very thin skin, a mere four centimeters (1.6 in.) of sediment, was effective in removing nitrate from streams of the Illinois River basin during late summer. The crucial investigative approach was labeling in-stream nitrate with an isotopic tracer that could be followed at very fine scales in the sediment and simultaneously tracked for kilometers downstream.

The study scientists found that hyporheic flow increased nitrate removal by renewing the supply of dissolved organic carbon and nitrate to specialized bacteria in the sediment that performed denitrification, a reaction that converts dissolved nitrate to gaseous nitrogen and so removes nitrate permanently from flowing water. 

The top four centimeters of sediment had the greatest abundance of denitrifying bacteria, in addition to the highest levels of hyporheic flow. Sediment properties in this thin layer were also conducive to the formation of oxygen-free micro zones that are required for the reaction to take place.

"USGS hydrologic research is focused on, among other things, improving our understanding of the biochemical processes at work in our waterways so that we can provide policy makers with information that will lead to better informed decisions." observed Jerad Bales, USGS Acting Associate Director for Water. "This work is an excellent example of how science is critically important for effectively addressing the one of the important environmental issues of our time."

Stream restoration is a billion dollar industry in the U.S., although its water quality benefits are not widely proven. Most restoration structures are designed in a manner that creates relatively deep hyporheic flow, which adds, this study demonstrated, only minimally to additional hyporheic flow and nitrogen removal in comparison to shallow hyporheic flow operating alone.

The study suggests how restoration structures might be modified to protect naturally functioning hyporheic zones and how hyporheic flow could be increased in order to stimulate greater removal of stream nitrate by denitrification.

These findings have immediate importance to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s ongoing effort to evaluate federal jurisdiction in headwater streams, ponds, and wetlands where processes such as hyporheic flow may positively influence water quality and deliver additional benefits to downstream ecological health and recreational values of rivers and estuaries.  

The study was published in the October 2013 edition of Water Resources Research. The findings were presented December 11 at the fall meeting of the American Geophysical Union.

Learn more

The hyporheic zone, from Greek words meaning “under the flow,” lies under the streambed and serves as the “skin” of the stream.

Chelton Receives 2013 Pecora Award for Achievements in Ocean Remote Sensing

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 15:00

Correction, 12/18/2013. The original text of this release incorrectly stated Dr. Chelton's academic background.

____________________________________________________________

The Department of the Interior's U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and NASA presented the 2013 William T. Pecora Award for achievement in Earth remote sensing to Dudley B. Chelton, distinguished professor of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences at Oregon State University, Corvallis.

Chelton was recognized for his contributions to ocean remote-sensing science, education, and applications. The award was presented Wednesday by Suzette Kimball, USGS acting director, and Michael Freilich, director of the Earth Science Division in NASA's Science Mission Directorate, at the American Geophysical Union meeting in San Francisco. 

The Department of the Interior and NASA present the Pecora Awards to honor outstanding contributions in the field of remote sensing and its application to understanding Earth. The award was established in 1974 to honor the memory of William T. Pecora, former USGS director and Interior undersecretary. Pecora was influential in the establishment of the Landsat satellite program, which created a continuous, 40-plus-year record of Earth's land areas. 

"Every year the Pecora Award signifies the very high value that both the USGS and NASA place in observing Earth from space," said Kimball. "As our natural resources around the world continue to be stressed by a growing population and changing climate, it is more critical than ever that we have an objective, comprehensive view of the changes happening to our planet." 

Chelton is a pioneer in the oceanographic use of satellite data to explore the role of the ocean in the Earth's climate system. His work has led to new hypotheses in ocean studies and has inspired many follow-up investigations by the ocean remote-sensing community, increasing the practice and appreciation of ocean remote-sensing.

"Throughout his career, Dudley has been known for developing statistical methods to analyze existing satellite data while preparing for the next generation of remote-sensing instruments," said Freilich.

After receiving a Ph.D. in oceanography from Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, Chelton realized the potential of satellite-based observations and moved to the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in 1980 to analyze the newly available Seasat data. His 1981 paper in Nature demonstrated the ability of satellite instruments to make global observations of the ocean. Chelton moved to Oregon State University in 1983 where he established an ocean remote-sensing program that has grown into national prominence.

The comprehensive understanding of the technical and statistical aspects of ocean remote-sensing serves as the foundation of Chelton's major scientific discoveries. For over thirty years, he has led efforts to improve satellite-derived measurements of the four primary ocean variables that can be sensed remotely: sea surface height, surface winds, sea surface temperature, and ocean surface biological productivity.

Chelton is a Fellow of the American Geophysical Union and the American Meteorological Society and received a NASA Public Service Medal. Many of his 110 papers and book chapters have become standard references in his field.

Learn more

What are Future Climate Projections for Precipitation and Temperature for Your County?

Tue, 12/10/2013 - 11:30
USGS Website Lets You See

Reporters: An example map (Yellowstone National Park summer temperature data) from the viewer is available at the end of this release, but you can also find your county's data here.

 For the first time, maps and summaries of historical and projected temperature and precipitation changes for the 21st century for the continental U.S. are accessible at a county-by-county level on a website developed by the U.S. Geological Survey in collaboration with the College of Earth, Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences at Oregon State University.

The maps and summaries are based on NASA downscaling of the 33 climate models used in the 5th Climate Model Intercomparison Project and the current Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Report. The resulting NASA dataset is on an 800-meter grid with national coverage. 

The USGS leveraged this massive dataset and distilled the information into easily understood maps, 3-page summaries and spreadsheet compatible data files for each state and county in the United States.  A similar implementation for the USGS nested hydrologic units will be available in the next month.  

"This product is innovative, user-friendly and invaluable for assessing and understanding climate model simulations of local and regional climate and climate change whether you’re a policy maker, a manager, a planner, an educator or another engaged U.S. citizen," said Matthew Larsen, associate director for the USGS Climate and Land Use Program.  "The maps and summaries at the county level condense a huge volume of data into formats that are informative for planning, teaching, adaptation and mitigation purposes."

USGS scientists Jay Alder and Steve Hostetler, who designed and implemented the project as part of their other efforts at visualizing climate models, noted that users can not only view the county average of all the 30 climate models, but they can also select individual models to see how they compare or differ. 

To make the number of permutations more manageable for the viewer, Alder and Hostetler averaged the data for the historical period and two future IPCC climate scenarios into 25-year periods (1980-2004, 2025-2049, 2050-2074 and 2075-2099) that span the 21st century.  Absolute values and changes in temperature and precipitation for these periods are accessible through the viewer.   Other useful tools for characterizing climate change include plots of monthly averages of temperature and precipitation, time-series spanning 1950-2099, and tables that summarize possible changes in the extremes of temperature and precipitation.

"We believe that this product will be useful for a variety of purposes," Alder said. "For example," he said, "farmers and land managers can use the information to help them think about adaptation and mitigation strategies, or educators can use it to teach students about aspects of climate model simulations that underpin IPCC Assessment Reports."

The maps and summaries are available here.

More information about USGS Climate and Land-Use Research is available here

Example of the web application displaying changes in maximum summer (July) temperature for Park County, WY (home of Yellowstone National Park). The time-series chart below the map displays two emission scenarios: RCP8.5 (“business as usual”) and RCP 4.5 (“greenhouse gas reduction/remediation”) from 1950-2100. By the end of the century, the maximum temperature in Park County is projected to warm by 7.5 °C (13.5 °F) under the RCP 8.5 (business as usual) scenario and 3.9 °C (7.0 °F) under RCP 4.5 (greenhouse gas reduction/remediation).

Communities of Southern Chesapeake Bay Find Sea Level Rise Heightened by Sinking Land

Mon, 12/09/2013 - 15:39

Communities and coastal habitats in the southern Chesapeake Bay region face increased flooding because, as seawater levels are rising in the bay, the land surface is also sinking._ A new USGS report released today concludes that intensive groundwater withdrawals are a major cause of the sinking land, or 'land subsidence', that contributes to flooding risks in the region. 

"From a practical viewpoint, sea level is relative to the land surface," said Jerad Bales, Acting Associate Director for Water at USGS.  “Whether the water is rising or the land is sinking, or both, the effect is the same:  greater vulnerability to coastal storms and loss of important coastal habitat, both of which result in economic losses." 

The new study presents a variety of data and findings from previous studies to examine land subsidence in the southern Chesapeake Bay region. 

Previous USGS studies have r established that the Chesapeake Bay region has the highest rates of relative sea-level rise on the East Coast. The sea-level rise rates around the Chesapeake Bay range from 3.2 to 4.7mm/per year with 4.4 mm/yr in Norfolk. (A penny is about 1 mm thick.) Land subsidence alone causes more than half of the observed relative sea-level rise in the southern Chesapeake Bay.

While there are several factors influencing land subsidence, aquifer system compaction, caused by extensive groundwater pumping in the Virginia Coastal Plain, is a major cause in the Norfolk area. Land subsidence has occurred around Norfolk at an average rate of 3 mm/year since 1940. 

Low-lying communities and critical habitats  in the Chesapeake Bay region are especially vulnerable to damage from the relative sea-level rise caused by land subsidence. Communities in the southern Bay can experience increased flooding. The loss of coastal marsh and wetlands decreases the extent of specific habitat that waterfowl need to winter in the Bay region.

The report suggests that changing groundwater management practices could slow or mitigate land subsidence and relative sea-level rise.  Moving groundwater pumping away from high-risk areas or decreasing groundwater withdrawal rates can reduce subsidence in low-lying areas prone to flooding. These results will be used by federal and state managers to consider adaptation strategies in their efforts to restore and protect the Chesapeake Bay.

Continued monitoring, mapping, and modeling are scientific tools needed to help natural resource managers and urban planners understand and reduce or mitigate land subsidence. 

Changing resource management practices in response to rising seas and sinking land will require sustained public commitment.

The study was conducted by the USGS Virginia Water Science Center and the Office of Groundwater. The study circular is available online.

Learn More

Land subsidence and over-withdrawal of groundwater from aquifers are two critical topics currently being addressed by the USGS Cooperative Water Program and the USGS Groundwater Resources Program.

Science summary of sea-level rise in the Chesapeake Bay  (May 2013)

Sea Level Rise Accelerating in U.S. Atlantic Coast  (USGS release, 6/24/2012) 

USGS Science at American Geophysical Union Conference, San Francisco, December 8-13, 2013

Fri, 12/06/2013 - 15:30

SAN FRANCISCO — The U.S. Geological Survey participates in the American Geophysical Union's fall meeting with hundreds of technical presentations.  Below are some highlights of USGS science at AGU this year. Highlights about the technical sessions are presented in chronological order with session numbers, and room numbers in San Francisco's Moscone Convention Center (either Moscone South, MS, or Moscone West, MW). For more information, visit the AGU Fall meeting website.

News media representatives are invited to visit the USGS booth in the AGU Exhibit Hall. This is an easy place to connect with USGS data, publications, and information. Please contact Leslie Gordon to arrange for an interview with the USGS scientists.

 News Conferences – Moscone West, Room 3000, Level 3

Dynamic Mars from Long–Term Observations
Tuesday, 12/10, 11:30 a.m. – Participating USGS Scientist Colin Dundas

Associated oral session with USGS Scientist Colin Dundas
Observations of Ice-Exposing Impacts on Mars over Three Mars Years
Wednesday, 12/11, 9:20 a.m., MW 2022/P31C-07

Titan as You've Never Seen it Before
Thursday, 12/12, 11:30 a.m. – Participating USGS Scientist Randolph Kirk

Associated oral session with USGS Scientist Randolph Kirk
Cassini RADAR Observes Titan’s Kraken Mare, The Largest Extraterrestrial Sea
Friday, 12/13, 11:05 a.m., MW 2007/P52B-04 

Public Lecture --Sunday  

Sunday, 12/8, 12:00 p.m. – MS 102
Free Public Lecture - Imagine an America without Los Angeles: Natural Hazards and the Complexity of Urban America
USGS Scientist: Lucy Jones
Lucy Jones will discuss how science can improve society’s resiliency to earthquakes. Free and open to the public.    

Technical Sessions --Monday  

Monday, 12/9, 8:00 a.m. – MS Poster Hall 
Influence of Older Structure on Quaternary Faulting in Northeastern California
T11D-2494/Poster
USGS Scientist: Vicki Langenheim
Geologically young faulting and volcanism may be influenced by a concealed crustal structure between Mt. Shasta and Lassen Peak.  This structure is revealed by tiny perturbations in the Earth's gravity and magnetic fields caused by differences in rock density and magnetization.    

Monday, 12/9, 8:15 a.m. – MW 2004
Deep Soil Carbon and Vulnerabilities to Anthropogenic Change
B11J-02/Oral presentation
USGS Scientist: Jennifer Harden
Soils store large amounts of organic carbon (C), thus have helped regulate greenhouse gases and temperatures of the earth’s atmosphere. Land use change and rapid warming now influence the capacity for soils to actively store carbon. Scientists explore basic principles of soil formation and C cycling in order to understand how soils will respond to anthropogenic change.    

Monday, 12/9, 1:40 p.m. – MS Poster Hall
Science For Decision-Makers: Climate Change Indicators For The North-Central California Coast And Ocean
PA13B-1772/Poster
USGS Scientist: Tom Suchanek
Ocean climate indicators were developed in a project based at NOAA’s Gulf of the Farallones National Marine Sanctuary for the North-central California coast and ocean, from Año Nuevo to Point Arena, including the Pacific coastline of the San Francisco Bay Area. These represent the first regional ocean climate indicators in the National Marine Sanctuary System. The indicators were developed in collaboration with over 50 regional research scientists and resource managers representing federal and state agencies, research universities and institutions, and non-governmental organizations.     

Monday, 12/9,1:40 p.m. – MS Poster Hall
Comparison of Nutrient Sources in a Former Salt Pond Under Restoration
H13H-1476/Poster
USGS Scientist: Brent Topping
Nutrient level fluctuations can disturb an ecosystem, and a key monitoring question during wetland restoration efforts is nutrient flux and transport. With the implementation of the South Bay Restoration Program in 2008, water quality in the Alviso Salt Ponds, California, has been monitored to document the effects of changing hydrologic connections among the ponds and the adjacent pond, slough and estuary. Ongoing research is shedding light on how bottom transport may be an important movement mechanism for both nutrients and toxicants in a rebuilding ecosystem.    

Tuesday    

Tuesday, 12/10, 9:15 a.m. – MW 3016
Multi-Scale Simulations of Past and Future Projections of Hydrology in Lake Tahoe Basin, California-Nevada
H21M-06/Oral presentation
USGS Scientist: Richard Niswonger
Using a new-generation, linked surface- and groundwater-flow model, we examine impacts of climate changes and extremes in the Lake Tahoe basin. Climatic impacts are simulated in terms of water-availability and flood responses to selected climate-change projections and to an extreme ("ARkStorm") storm scenario and its resulting floods.    

Tuesday, 12/10, 9:45 a.m. – MW 2003
Predicting Barrier Island Evolution Through Numerical-Model Scenarios  
EP21A-08/Oral presentation
USGS Scientist: Nathaniel Plant 
Prediction of barrier island evolution using numerical models can explain which processes, natural or human, are most important to long-term changes that affect future vulnerability to storms, sea-level rise, and human modification. Scientists will show numerical simulations of processes that transport sand along and across a barrier island during storms.    

Tuesday, 12/10, 11:05 a.m. – MW 2000
A Global Perspective on Warmer Droughts as a Key Driver of Forest Disturbances and Tree Mortality
B22C-04/Oral presentation
USGS Scientist: Craig Allen
Global warming and droughts are causing greater forest-water stress across large regions, and amplifying forest disturbances, particularly drought-induced tree mortality, wildfire, and insect outbreaks. Emerging global-scale patterns of drought- and heat-induced forest die-off are presented, including a newly updated map overview of documented die-off events from around the world, demonstrating the vulnerability of all major forest types to forest drought stress, even in typically wet environments.     

Tuesday, 12/10, 1:40 p.m. – MS 103
Recent Microscopic Imager Results from Opportunity
P23F-1858/Poster
USGS Scientist: Ken Herkenhoff
Exploration of Endeavour crater by the Mars Exploration Rover Opportunity continues, with the rover approaching more exposures of clay minerals detected from orbit; the latest Microscopic Imager results will be presented.    

Tuesday, 12/10, 1:40 p.m. – MS Poster Hall
Magnetic Tides of Honolulu
GP23A-0983/Poster
USGS Scientists: Jeffrey Love, E. Joshua Rigler
Geomagnetic tides are time-periodic variations in the Earth’s magnetic field. Using almost a century of magnetic observatory data collected at the USGS in Honolulu Hawaii, we analyze magnetic tides caused by the relative motion and interaction of the Earth, Moon, and Sun, and the sunspot solar cycle.    

Tuesday, 12/10, 1:40 p.m. – MS 103
Limits of Statistical Climate-fire Modeling: What Goes Up Must Come Down  
GC23G-01/Oral presentation
USGS Scientist: Jeremy Littell
Climate affects wildfires, but “how” varies across ecosystems. Water balance (water surplus and drought) characterizes these effects, and scientists used it to project how fire could change under climate change. Will the whole West burn up? In some forests, it might appear so, but the whole story is more nuanced.    

Tuesday, 12/10, 2:10 p.m. – MS 103
Different Climate–Fire Relationships on Forested and Non-Forested Landscapes in California
GC23G-03/ Oral presentation
USGS Scientist: Jon Keeley  
Although wildfire activity is expected to increase due to global warming and other climate changes in the future, this study shows it is more complicated than a simple increase in fires with increased temperature. While climate will likely play an important role in determining fire regimes in the high elevation mountain forests, there is less evidence that it will alter fires at lower elevations. Future fires in California’s foothill and coastal environments will be affected by many global changes, particularly increases in human populations.   

Tuesday, 12/10, 2:55 p.m. – MS 103
Can climate change increase fire severity independent of fire intensity?
GC23G-06/Oral presentation
USGS Scientist: Phillip van Mantgem
Regional warming may be linked to increasing fire size and frequency in forests of the western United States. Recent studies have also suggested that warming temperatures are correlated with increased fire severity (post-fire tree mortality), though the precise mechanism is unclear. Our research presents evidence that trees subject to environmental stress are more sensitive to subsequent fire damage. (see related news: http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=3649)  

Tuesday, 12/10, 3:25 p.m. – MW 3002
Are Large-scale Manipulations of Streamflow for Ecological Outcomes Effective Either as Experiments or Management Actions?
H23J-08/Oral presentation
USGS Scientist: Chris Konrad
Water managers increasingly address ecological sustainability as part of dam operations. Dam releases for ecological outcomes have been practiced for over half a century to improve ecological conditions in rivers and estuaries. A review of more than 100 large-scale flow experiments evaluates their effectiveness for learning how to achieve sustainable water management.    

Wednesday  

Wednesday, 12/11, 8:00 a.m. – MS Poster Hall
Surprise and Opportunity for Learning in Grand Canyon: The Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program
H31B-1154/Oral presentation
USGS Scientist: Ted Melis
Flow experiments from Glen Canyon Dam since 1990, have informed federal managers trying to mitigate peak water flow impacts on Colorado River resources. Results were not predicted, but were "surprise" learning opportunities for adaptive river managers. Major uncertainties remain about the influence of global warming on the river’s native fish and beaches.        

Wednesday, 12/11, 11:20 a.m. – MS 307
Missing Great Earthquakes
S32A-05/Oral presentation
USGS Scientist: Susan Hough
The past decade has witnessed an apparent bumper crop of great earthquakes, with a total of six events above M8.5. Best available historical catalogs reveal only seven M≥8.5 earthquakes during the entire 19th century. Although the average long-term rate of global great earthquakes remains uncertain, one can show that great earthquakes are missing and/or estimated in best-available historical catalogs.  Since the largest known earthquakes in many regions occurred before seismometers were developed around 1900, some of our estimates of largest possible magnitudes are likely too low.  This suggests that so-called black swan events like the 2011 Tohoku, Japan, earthquake, while still not commonplace events, are not such rare beasts after all.    

Wednesday, 12/11, 11:20 a.m. – MW 3003
An Integrated, Indicator Framework for Assessing Large-Scale Variations and Change in Seasonal Timing and Phenology
GC32B-04/Oral presentation
USGS Scientist: Julio Betancourt
As part of the National Climate Assessment's Indicator System, the Seasonality and Phenology Indicators Technical Team proposed a framework for tracking variations and trends in seasonal timing of surface climate, snow and ice, vegetation green-up and flammability, and bird migration across the U.S. These national indicators are measured by day-of-year, number of days, or latitude of observation at a given date.    

Wednesday, 12/11, 1:40 p.m. – MS Poster Hall
Tracking Hydrothermal Feature Changes in Response to Seismicity and Deformation at Mud Volcano Thermal Area, Yellowstone
V33C-2760/Poster
USGS Scientist: Angie Diefenbach
Mapping surficial change over 50 years at Mud Volcano thermal area in Yellowstone using readily accessible archives of aerial photographs from several federal agencies, gives scientists a better understanding of the links between seismicity and deformation episodes to increased heat and gas emissions at thermal areas.  

Wednesday, 12/11, 1:55 p.m. – MW 3009
Influences on the Morphologic Response to Hurricane Sandy: Fire Island, NY
OS33C-02/Oral presentation
USGS Scientist: Cheryl Hapke
Hurricane Sandy fundamentally altered the geomorphology of Fire Island, NY. Changes included severe beach erosion, razing of the dunes, extensive overwash and breaching of the island. The response during Sandy varied considerably along the island and appears to be largely controlled by the local geology (associated poster session Monday, 12/9 at 1:40 p.m. – MS Poster Hall).    

Wednesday, 12/11, 3:10 p.m. – MW 3009
Sandy-related Morphologic Changes in Barnegat Bay, NJ
OS33C-08/Oral presentation
USGS Scientist: Jennifer Miselis
Estuaries are some of the most productive habitats in the world. Biological, chemical, and physical estuarine processes are influenced by changes in depth and sediment composition, but storm-related changes are rarely measured. Our study integrates airborne and boat-based sensors and sampling to understand estuarine changes caused by Superstorm Sandy.  

Thursday

Thursday, 12/12, 8:00 a.m. – MS Poster Hall
Fog as an ecosystem service in northern California
A41E-0111/Poster
USGS Scientist: Alicia Torregrosa
Humans can greatly benefit from temperature cooling derived from coastal fog such as reducing the number of hospital visits/emergency response requests from heat stress-vulnerable population sectors or decreased energy consumption during periods when summer maximum temperatures are lower than normal. The thermal relief provided by summertime fog and low clouds is equivalent in magnitude to the temperature increase projected by the driest and hottest of regional downscaled climate models using the A2 (“worst”) IPCC scenario. Extrapolating these thermal calculations can facilitate future quantifications of the ecosystem service provided by summertime low clouds and fog. 

Thursday, 12/12, 8:00 a.m. – MS Poster Hall
SAFRR Tsunami Scenario: Economic Impacts and Resilience
NH41B-1718/Poster
USGS Scientists: Anne Wein
The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario models a hypothetical but plausible tsunami, created by an M9.1 earthquake occurring offshore from the Alaskan peninsula, and its impacts on the California coast. We provide an overview of the likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management, and policy implications for California associated with the tsunami scenario. Scenario users are those who must make mitigation decisions before, response decisions during, and recovery decisions after future tsunamis.
(associated oral presentations on Friday, 12/13 starting at 5:30 p.m. – MS 309)

Thursday, 12/12, 8:00 a.m. – MS Poster Hall
Multi-Temporal Harmonization of Independent Land-Use/Land-Cover Datasets for the Conterminous United States
B41E-0448/Poster
USGS Scientist: Chris Soulard
USGS Land Change research aims to extend LULC change monitoring beyond 1973-2000 to more recent dates, without resource-intensive manual interpretation. We leveraged a range of existing LULC products and improved LULC classification by identifying agreement between datasets. This process, termed harmonization, has proven to be a cost efficient way to create reliable LULC maps.  

Thursday, 12/12, 8:00 a.m. – MS Poster Hall
Megasplash at Lake Tahoe
NH41A-1691/Poster
USGS Scientist: Jim Moore, Richard Schweickert (Univ. of Nevada)
One of the largest landslides on the continent occurred in Lake Tahoe 12,000 to 21,000 years ago. Backwash from the gigantic splash caused by the 2.5 cubic-mile landslide formed major tsunamis. This backwash was equivalent to 15 major rivers flowing into the lake at the same time, and would have decimated life in the splash zone surrounding the lake.   

Thursday, 12/12, 8:45 a.m. – MW 3001
Integrated Climate/Land Use/Hydrological Change Scenarios for Assessing Threats to Ecosystem Services on California Rangelands
GC41D-04/Oral presentation
USGS Scientist: Kristin Byrd
Scientists have developed integrated climate/land use/hydrological change scenarios for assessing threats to ecosystem services on California rangelands. Model outputs quantify the impact of urbanization on water supply and show the importance of soil storage capacity. Scenarios have applications for climate-smart conservation and land use planning.  

Thursday, 12/12, 9:15 a.m. – MS 307
Understanding the Largest Deep Earthquake Ever Recorded
P23F-1858/Oral presentation
USGS Scientist: Robert Graves, Shengji Wei (Caltech)
In May 2013 a M8.3 earthquake ruptured beneath the Sea of Okhotsk at a depth of 610 kilometers, far below the Earth's crust. The entire earthquake sequence took just 30 seconds with energy released in four major shocks. This suggests that deep earthquakes are more efficient in dissipating stress than shallow earthquakes.  

Thursday, 12/12, 11:20 a.m. – MW 3007
High Resolution Space-Time Analysis of Ice Motion at a Rapidly Retreating Tidewater Glacier
C42B-05/Oral presentation
USGS Scientist: Shad O’Neel
Rapid changes to rates of sea level rise are forced in large part by tidewater glacier dynamics. With unprecedented detail, we analyze discharge from Alaska’s Columbia Glacier supporting other lines of evidence that the retreat has peaked and is now declining, suggesting regional ice mass loss rates may also decrease.    

Thursday, 12/12, 3:25 p.m. – MS 308
Detecting Deep Crustal Magma Movement: Exploring Linkages Between Increased Gas Emission, Deep Seismicity, and Deformation Prior to Recent Volcanic Activity
V43D-08/Oral presentation
USGS Scientist: Cynthia Werner
In 2003, deep long-period earthquakes, CO2 emissions, and surface uplift were described as three ‘promising indicators’ of deep magmatic processes.  Now, ten years later, new data suggests that indeed that combination of very subtle changes in these parameters can help understand and predict changes in volcanic activity months in advance.    

Thursday, 12/12, 5:00 p.m. – MS 307
Megacity Megaquakes: Two Near Misses, and the Clues they Leave for Earthquake Interaction
S44B-05/Oral presentation
USGS Scientist: Ross Stein
Two recent mega-earthquakes, a M8.8 earthquake off the Chilean coast and a M9.0 earthquake off the coast of Japan, resulted in a large number of fatalities.  Even though the capital cities of Santiago and Tokyo escaped severe damage, the rate of lesser shocks beneath each city jumped by a factor of about 10 following each megaquake.  What does this portend for the likelihood of future large earthquakes? Are these really aftershocks, and are large shocks more probable now than before the mega-earthquakes?      

Thursday, 12/12, 5:30 p.m. – MS 305
Crowd-Sourcing for Earthquake Monitoring and Rapid Response
S44A-07/Oral presentation
USGS Scientist: Sarah Minson
Earthquake early warning systems are being implemented in select locations. Expansion to high-risk regions lacking seismic infrastructure, however, is cost-limited. Scientists demonstrate that a stand-alone system comprising cell-phone quality GPS stations is inexpensive enough to be implemented globally and accurate enough to provide early warning of large earthquakes and tsunami.    

Thursday, 12/12, 5:45 p.m. – MS 309
Six Large Tsunamis in the Past ~1700 years at Stardust Bay, Sedanka Island, Alaska
NH44A-08/Oral presentation
USGS Scientist: Robert Witter
On a small island facing the Aleutian-Alaska subduction zone, the 1957 Andreanof Islands tsunami deposited beach sand and stranded drift logs 18 meters above sea level. Five older sand sheets suggest great earthquakes along this part of the Aleutian megathrust generate Pacific-wide tsunamis on average every 325 years. Intriguingly, the age of the predecessor of the 1957 tsunami overlaps the time of unusual marine flooding on Kaua'i about 400 years ago.    

Friday     

Friday, 12/13, 8:00 a.m. – MS Poster Hall
Recent Applications of Continental-Scale Phenology Data for Science, Conservation, and Resource Management
B51G-0374/Poster
USGS Scientist: Jake Weltzin
Professional and “citizen” scientists are contributing data on seasonal plant and animal activity across the United States – as part of a national project called Nature’s Notebook – to inform science and natural resource management. Featured applications include a national index of Spring and tools to support detection and eradication of invasive plants.    

Friday, 12/13, 11:05 a.m. – MS 309
Community Vulnerability to Tsunami Threats in the U.S. Pacific Northwest
NH54A-04/Oral presentation
USGS Scientist: Nathan Wood
Coastal communities in northern California, Oregon, and Washington are classified based on similar characteristics of vulnerability to tsunamis associated with Cascadia subduction zone earthquakes. Research focuses on the number and type of at-risk individuals in hazard zones, including estimates of needed evacuation time. Results can be used to prioritize risk-reduction efforts that address common issues across multiple communities. 

Friday, 12/13, 2:10 p.m. – MS 307
The Effect of Porosity on Fault Slip Mechanisms at East Pacific Rise Transform Faults: Insight From Observations and Models at the Gofar Fault
S53D-03/Oral presentation
USGS Scientist: Emily Roland
East Pacific Rise transform (strike-slip) faults demonstrate significant variability along their length in their ability to generate large earthquakes. Using observations and models, scientists consider how changes in fault zone material properties, specifically porosity of fault zone rocks and pore fluid pressure, may influence rupture segmentation.     

Friday, 12/12, 5:30 p.m. – MS 309
The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario: Improving Resilience for California from a Plausible M9 Earthquake near the Alaska Peninsula
NH54A-07/Oral presentation
USGS Scientist: Stephanie Ross
The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario models a hypothetical but plausible tsunami, created by an M9.1 earthquake occurring offshore from the Alaskan peninsula, and its impacts on the California coast. The scenario includes the likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management, and policy implications for California, providing the basis for improving preparedness, mitigation, and continuity planning for tsunamis, which can reduce damage and economic impacts and enhance recovery efforts.    

Friday, 12/12, 5:45 p.m. – MS 309
Environmental and Environmental-Health Implications of the USGS SAFRR California Tsunami Scenario
NH54A-08/Oral presentation
USGS Scientist: Geoffrey Plumlee
The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario models a hypothetical but plausible tsunami, created by an M9.1 earthquake occurring offshore from the Alaskan peninsula, and its impacts on the California coast. Environmental impacts from contamination and potential for human exposures to contaminants and hazardous materials, are an underappreciated hazard from tsunamis. Inundation-related damages to major ports, boat yards, and many marinas could release complex debris, crude oil, various fuel types, other petroleum products, some liquid bulk cargo and dry bulk cargo, and diverse other pollutants into nearby coastal marine environments and onshore in the inundation zone.